LJF Invest

01 / Core Holdings

Core Holdings

May 26, 07:01 PM

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

AI infrastructure alpha

Thesis

NVIDIA is no longer just a semiconductor company. It is becoming the infrastructure layer of the AI era. Its moat is not GPU hardware alone, but the CUDA ecosystem that locks in developers, frameworks, cloud platforms and AI training pipelines. The market is not pricing NVIDIA as a chip company; it is pricing NVIDIA as a core supplier of global AI expansion.

Why I Hold

I believe AI infrastructure demand is still in the early stage. As long as AI models continue scaling, compute demand may keep growing for years. NVIDIA currently owns the dominant ecosystem layer.

What I Am Watching

AI infrastructure spending

Hyperscaler capex

CUDA ecosystem dominance

AI inference transition

Competition from AMD / ASIC / TPU

Margin sustainability

Position

Position size tracked in Portfolio.

Market

$217.78

-0.79%

BTC

Bitcoin

High-volatility dollar asset

Thesis

Bitcoin has evolved into a highly volatile, highly uncertain dollar-linked asset. It is increasingly shaped by institutional flows, ETF liquidity, treasury-company behavior and global dollar conditions rather than only native crypto narratives.

Why I Hold

I currently hold a small position and may buy more in the future, but I treat BTC as a high-uncertainty asset. It can be influenced by institutions, is deeply linked to MicroStrategy's balance-sheet narrative, and carries potential blow-up risk during liquidity stress.

What I Am Watching

ETF flows

Dollar liquidity

MicroStrategy linkage

Institutional positioning

Leverage and liquidation risk

Regulatory tail risk

Position

Around USD 500. Exact coin amount not recorded yet.

Market

$77,347.78

+0.10%

QQQM

Nasdaq 100 / Invesco QQQM

Global AI growth index

Thesis

QQQ and QQQM are essentially the same Nasdaq 100 exposure. Going forward, QQQM is the better long-term accumulation vehicle because of its lower fee structure. The Nasdaq 100 is increasingly becoming a global AI index: cloud, chips, platforms, software, advertising and consumer technology are all tied to this cycle's main economic growth engine.

Why I Hold

I want broad exposure to the companies driving this round of economic growth. Instead of trying to pick every AI winner, QQQM gives me a simple long-term vehicle for the US technology and AI platform cycle.

What I Am Watching

AI revenue contribution

Cloud capex cycle

Mega-cap earnings breadth

Index concentration risk

Valuation multiples

Rate sensitivity

Position

Currently held through 3 QQQM shares and 3 QQQ shares. Future buying will mainly go to QQQM for lower fees and long-term holding.

Market

$298.48

+1.45%

02 / AI Research

AI Research

AI Infrastructure

High

Compute is not a one-time hardware cycle

Training, inference, networking and storage demand continue to push capital spending toward the compute layer.

Can the AI capex cycle last longer than the market currently expects?

Software Leverage

Medium

The second-order margin effect of AI software

AI coding, office and data-analysis tools are starting to improve output per employee across software companies.

Which companies can turn AI capability into pricing power instead of just higher cost?

Platform Distribution

Medium

Distribution is closer to cash flow than the model itself

Cloud platforms, operating systems, search and social entry points still control AI application distribution.

Will AI-native products strengthen existing platforms or weaken platform entry points?

03 / Company Thesis

Company Thesis

NVDA

NVIDIA

Whether the AI infrastructure profit pool remains concentrated in accelerated computing.

Holding Status

Price
$217.78
Cost
$215.95
Value
$2,177.80
Cost Basis
$2,159.50
Business Model

Data-center revenue is driven by chips, systems, networking and a software ecosystem.

Moat

CUDA, hardware roadmaps, supply-chain execution and customer switching costs.

Risk

Custom silicon, gross-margin pressure and a potential slowdown in AI capex.

MSFT

Microsoft

Whether Copilot and Azure AI can keep lifting ARPU and cloud share.

Holding Status

Not purchased

Business Model

Cloud, office software, developer tools and enterprise AI services create recurring cash flow.

Moat

Enterprise distribution, Azure, Office ecosystem and developer relationships.

Risk

AI capex is high and software monetization may take longer than expected.

GOOGL

Alphabet

Whether Google can protect the advertising profit pool as AI reshapes search.

Holding Status

Not purchased

Business Model

Advertising cash flow funds AI, cloud and video ecosystem investment.

Moat

Search distribution, data scale, TPU infrastructure and advertiser networks.

Risk

AI search could compress ad clicks while regulation and capex pressure rise.

04 / Watchlist Research

TSLA

Tesla

Waiting

Embodied AI

Is Tesla's long-term value shifting from car manufacturing toward robotics and autonomous driving?

FSD commercialization, robotics progress, automotive gross margin and delivery quality.

04 / Watchlist Research

AMZN

Amazon

Researching

Cloud + logistics

Can AWS, advertising and logistics efficiency support the next margin expansion cycle?

AWS growth, advertising profit, capex efficiency and consumer resilience.

05 / Macro & Liquidity

Macro & Liquidity

US 10Y Treasury Yield

Watch whether long rates are pressuring Nasdaq 100 valuation multiples.

Stable or falling rates are more supportive for long-duration technology multiples.

DXY

Read it together with BTC, QQQM and high-valuation AI stocks.

A weaker dollar usually improves risk-asset liquidity; a stronger dollar raises discount pressure.

Fed Funds / FOMC

Do not predict the meeting; record the direction of liquidity.

Easier policy expectations can support research-based additions; tighter expectations should reduce impulse buying.

06 / AI Assisted Insights

AI Assisted Insights

Portfolio structure

Confidence High

The portfolio's key sensitivity is not daily price action, but whether the AI capex cycle keeps expanding.

Break NVIDIA research into data center, networking, software ecosystem and margin durability.

Core holding review

Confidence Medium

BTC is entangled with institutional flows, the MicroStrategy narrative and dollar liquidity, so it cannot be assumed to diversify risk.

Keep BTC sizing small and define it as high-volatility dollar liquidity exposure, not a stable hedge.

Behavioral rule

Confidence High

This Invest page should serve long-term research, not create trading frequency.

Tie every future add decision to a thesis update, not to price stimulation.